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TOWARDS A STABLE GLOBAL ECONOMY BASED

ON THREE GEOGRAPHICAL ECONOMIC CENTRES 


by B.WARBURTON

 


INTRODUCTION

      The present picemeal economy of individual countries or small trading blocks may in the future need to evolve towards a global system. The reasons for this, both from the point of view of need and also technical opportunity, will be discussed and then a cybernetics model of a possible global system will be explored.

      Economics has always been a subject by its very nature, historically, practised according to sociological and political considerations rather than mathematical or scientific ones. Very few economists have ventured to put up any rudimentary equations of behaviour for the general case. For example Professior John Galbraith has been very scathing about monetarism (1).

      The present analysis attempts to analyse the fundamentals of any financial transaction and also predict the time profile of such a process both for individual categories and also for ensembles of diverse processes.

      A number of interesting and yet paradoxical facts are already known. For example the four to seven year business cycle or boom-bust phenomenon as it is often referred to is well known and yet it is often the case that governments and politicians have an interest in denying its existrence stating that 'this year, we expect 2% growth or 3% growth'. This sadly implies that the business cycle is an easy thing to control or even eradicate.

      Although the laws of physical science are generally accepted by society as applying to physical phebnomena such as the laws of Newtonian mechanics, movement of the tides and the progression of the seasons in the teperate zones, it is also implicit that the laws governing the behaviour opf individuals and society at large are somehow in a totally different category.

      The present analysis depends on the coexistence of five closely interlocking ideas, four of which have in, principle, been mathematically and prctically validated thus adding to the underlying confidence in the model.

      At the present time, very few analysts have taken a detached view and asked the question: "Is the boom-bust cycle really controllable?".

      Let's now look in more detail as to how this could be done.


COMPONENTS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL

      Like all grandiose sysntheses, this global economic modelconsists of a fewcritical interlocking ideas. these are as follows.

      Firstly and importantly, money world-wide should be consideredsimply as a utility just like electricity, water, and gas. These comodities are freely bought and sold and even bartered across national bouindaries.

      Secondly, amongst these utilities is electrical power which is something rather special. An explanation is due here. Electrical power is distruted in most counties as alternating and three phase current. In a moment, this point will be enlarged, as the alternating or fluctuating feature turns out to be the most important and indeed exciting aspect of it.

      

      

      

      

      

      
THE PREDATOR-PREY MODEL